In my opinion, it is all a matter of market timing. It does not matter if it is gold, oil, or Microsoft, if you have access to good market timing signals, they will help you get in and out at a profit.

No guarantees in this business, but if they are right most of the time, you can still make $s.

There are may web sites providing them out there (search Google). Just find one that works and use it!

Its Dow Jones timing signals are up 44.7% as of 6/24/09 while the Dow is up just 26% off its March lows.

Following a market timing system works!

I’d agree there.

Still, a 10-20% total return on equity for the global economy over a 30-40 year period seems exceedingly unlikely to me. And I’d argue that such a scenario is approximately equal to a global economic collapse–a situation in which the concept of retirement is already completely out of the question for pretty much everybody.

Or we can have more frequent bear markets – boom and bust, with a net positive result. But if someone needs the cash when the markets are down, it’s not going to be there. I know – asset allocation – less in stocks as the investor ages. Is that enough to do the trick?

Why not protect against those scenarios by insuring that a bear market cannot do much damage to your account? I’m not recommending active investing, but I do think almost every investor (except those who can spot and buy all the winners) can benefit by using options – specifically collars to prevent disasters.

“Are you are guaranteed a worry-free retirement?” No, of course not. Exactly as you mentioned, “There is no plan guaranteed to work for each investor.”

I disagree wholeheartedly though with your statement that “Nor is it reasonable to anticipate that you can just assume the economy is going to prosper and that your share will amount to anything.”

Describe a scenario in which the global economy does not turn a profit over an investor’s lifetime. When I imagine such a scenario, all I see as worthwhile investments are guns, ammo, food, and water.

Frankly, given my set of skills, I know I’m dead in the water regardless of my investment approach if anything like that were to occur.

If you do that, what happens?

Are you are guaranteed a worry-free retirement?
Are you sure there’s no chance anything bad can happen?

I don’t like to be negative, but being oblivious is not the answer. There is no plan guaranteed to work for each investor. Being oblivious means cloisng your eyes and hoping for the best. ‘Hope” has never been, not can it ever be, a winning strategy.

Nor is it reasonable to anticipate that you can just assume the economy is going to prosper and that your share will amount to anything.

How true! A good catchphrase, actually!