Overconfidence and Better Investing: Weekend Reading

Was a fun week for discussion here on the blog with 3 guest posts in addition to the normal posting schedule. (Thanks, by the way, to Michael, David, and Mr. C.!)

For those who are curious: I didn’t do anything to solicit guest posts–they each were the idea of the guest writer. So it’s quite likely that next week will be back to the normal Monday, Wednesday, Friday schedule.

Investing Articles

Other Money-Related Articles

Oblivious Investor on Tour

Blog Carnivals

As always, thank you for reading, and I hope you enjoy your weekend. :)

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{ 6 comments }

Financial Samurai

You’re guest post is up! Whoo hoo.

Mike

Thanks again for hosting it. :)

Jim Blankenship, CFP®, EA

Another great list of reads, Mike – thanks again for putting the effort into finding these great articles!

jb

Larry

I think the Conventional Wisdom post has a lot of provocative things to say. You sound a bit like Otar here. But my problem is: how on earth do you know if you’re at the start of a bull or a bear market when you retire? Since we probably all agree that market timing is impossible, how do you plan for the optimum time to retire?

Mike

I wish I had some answers for you, but I really don’t.

The idea of adjusting allocation as a function of valuation levels makes some sense to me. But how under or overvalued does the market have to be before you adjust? And how much to adjust by? And what happens if, for instance, you just end up DCA’ing into stocks and the market keeps going down? At what point do you have to bail out?

To me, I see a lot of value in sticking with the other possible solutions: a lower withdrawal rate and the use of single premium immediate fixed annuities to increase one’s safe withdrawal rate.

Larry

That’s why I’d really like to see you get into Otar, Mike. Seems to me there’s lots of advice about how to accumulate assets prior to retirement, very little about how to deal with assets during retirement. Otar debunks a lot of the conventional wisdom, but he’s not a crank and he deals with the problems you’re discussing head on, including a very strong tilt towards annuitizing if your assets are limited.

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