Comments on: Historical Stock Market Returns

By: vulcan alex

vulcan alex — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 23:15:07 +0000

Gee since past performance does not indicate future performance and we don’t have a time machine, this data means little. Just saying by common logic a lot of work with this data is a lot of work wasted.

By: Rob Bennett

Rob Bennett — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 18:24:54 +0000

I believe that looking at the historical stock-return data is the key to becoming a successful long-term investor. I’m not a numbers-oriented person by nature (not by a long shot!). But I think that we need something objective to look at. Otherwise, you’ll hear 10 different “experts” advance 10 different theories of what stocks are going to do.

The historical data doesn’t tell us all we need to know. But it provides a valuable grounding in some objective realities. As you note, the interpretation of those realities is something different.

Thanks for the work you put into creating the spreadsheet, Mike.

Rob

By: Mike

Mike — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 15:00:52 +0000

Well, it could be used to draw any number of conclusions. I figured I’d leave that up to all of you though. That’s the fun part after all.

My conclusions as applied to my own portfolio shouldn’t surprise you: I intend to maximize my holding period (i.e., “buy & hold”). And my asset allocation is stock-heavy given that I have at least a few decades prior to retirement.

By: Rick Francis

Rick Francis — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 14:57:55 +0000

Mike,

Thank you for sharing the spreadsheet- it looks like you put a lot of work into it. Do you have any conclusions that you have drawn from all of that data?

-Rick Francis