Natalie writes in to ask,
“In your book Can I Retire you wrote about single premium immediate annuities being useful as a way to increase the amount a retiree can spend each year relative to a portfolio without annuities. But with the way annuity rates have declined over the last year, has that advice changed at all? Do annuities still make sense?”
It’s true that lifetime annuities have lower payouts than they did when I wrote the book. But the yields on other low-risk investments have declined as well.
So, overall, the same basic analysis still applies: Lifetime inflation-adjusted annuities allow you to safely spend more money than a diversified stock/bond portfolio does.
In fact, because of the way lifetime annuities work (that is, with annuitants who live beyond their life expectancy getting to spend the money of those who don’t make it to their life expectancy), they should always allow you to safely spend more money than a non-annuitized portfolio — regardless of current interest rates.
Some people might bring up the “4% rule” here, arguing that historically a 4% withdrawal rate has been mostly safe from a non-annuitized portfolio, whereas, depending on your age and gender, lifetime inflation-adjusted annuities aren’t even paying that much. (For example, according to Vanguard’s quote system, a 60-year-old female would only get 3.9% from a single premium immediate inflation-adjusted lifetime annuity today.)
But the problem with that argument is that when interest rates are well below their historical norms, a withdrawal rate based on historical returns isn’t exactly a safe bet. Said differently, it’s true that depending on your age and gender, a lifetime inflation-adjusted annuity may not even pay out 4% right now, but the flip side is that, with today’s low bond yields, a 4% inflation-adjusted withdrawal rate strategy from a non-annuitized portfolio is currently looking more dangerous than it has in the past.
Should You Delay Purchasing an Annuity?
And, for those who think an annuity does make sense for part of their portfolio, the same general analysis I provided for when to buy a lifetime annuity still applies. That is, the answer still depends on:
- The rate of return you think you can get from safe non-annuity investments while you delay your annuity purchase, and
- What direction you think interest rates will move while you delay your annuity purchase.
The more quickly and the more dramatically you expect interest rates to rise, the more sense it makes to delay purchasing an annuity. (In other words, if you expect rates to rise sharply in the near future, locking in currently-low rates for the rest of your life is probably not a great idea.)
Personally, I have no predictions as to how rates will change over any particular period of time.
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